THE NORMAN PATERSON SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Carleton University

46.515F Conflict Analysis and Conflict Management

Fall Term, 1998
Tuesday 8:30-11:30
Paterson 2A46

David B. Carment
Office: Paterson Hall 2A54
Hours: M/T - 2:30-4:30
E-mail: dcarment@ccs.carleton.ca
Ext. 6662
http://www.carleton.ca/~dcarment/home.html
Natalie Mychajlyszyn
Paterson Hall 2A47
T-1:30-3:30,W-10-12
nmychajl@ccs.carleton.ca
Ext. 1364

COURSE DESCRIPTION

The fall seminar is guided by some basic questions.? What are the sources and manifestations of conflict between and within states? How can knowledge about conflict be applied in order to achieve peace and cooperation in a changing international system? How do theories about conflict and cooperation become policy relevant? To address these and other questions this seminar will: (1) discuss the underlying assumptions, theories and perspectives that motivate the analysis of conflict; (2) provide through lectures and assigned readings, representative samples of recent research; (3) introduce to the student, key concepts and methodologies used by scholars in the analysis of conflict and the practice of conflict management; and (4) apply conflict analysis to the practice of international politics.

There are two phases of study during the fall seminar. The first half of the seminar examines the sources of international conflict. Students will gain practical insight and understanding of conflict by drawing on frameworks from the social sciences, primarily political science, sociology, history and psychology, and from strategic studies and peace research. In the second part of the fall seminar, students will be expected to apply their analytical skills through participation in an interactive computer simulation involving other university teams throughout North America, South America, Asia and Europe. As they attempt to implement policy initiatives and work in teams to resolve international disputes, students will confront conflict-laden issues in a context that provides an authenticity of experience and practicality. The objective is to enable participants to create and test organizational skills, understand the interdependence of international issues, appreciate cultural differences and approaches to world problems, and use computers for multi-nation communications. The class will represent Canada for the fall 1998 simulation. The simulation is intended to focus on a few primary sources of conflict in the world; it is not intended to cover all international issues that exist today. The main issues are: trade, Third World development, the environment, human rights, world health, drug trafficking, protracted regional conflict and arms control. There is no cost for participating in the simulation. The cost will be covered by a grant from the Centre for Security and Defence Studies at Carleton University.

Classes will consist of lectures, a take-home exam, student presentations, preparation for the simulation and web-based computer simulation. Students are expected to come to class having done all the required readings and prepared to contribute and listen to viewpoints of other students. Evaluation is divided between the first and second halves of the course consisting of, respectively, seminar and simulation work. There will be a take-home exam on November 24. Each student is expected to present an in-class summary of at least one of the readings. Prior to the simulation there will be a group presentation based on the issue brief. The updated brief will be submitted to the instructors following the end of the simulation as a revised 7 page issue paper. The grading for the course is as follows:

Take Home Exam
Class Participation
Issue Brief/Paper
ICONS Simulation and Group Evaluation
30%
20%
20%
30%

SUGGESTED READING

Students are not required to purchase any single text for the course. However, there are several texts that are very useful as guides to conflict analysis and conflict management. You are encouraged to consult at least two of the following:

Burton, John and Frank Dukes, eds 1990. Conflict: Practices in Management, Settlement and Resolution. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1990.

Carment, David. and Patrick James, eds. 1997. Wars in the Midst of Peace: The International Politics of Ethnic Conflict. University of Pittsburgh Press, 1997.

Crocker, Chester, A. and Fen Osler Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds. 1996. Managing Global Chaos: Sources and Responses to International Conflict. Washington: USIP..

Schneider, Gerald. and Patricia Weitsman, eds. 1997. Enforcing Cooperation. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Vasquez, John et. al. eds.1995. Beyond Confrontation. Ann Arbour: University of Michigan Press.

 

You should also consult the following three sources for background information:

Schmid, A.P. and Jongman, A.J. 1997. "Violent Conflicts and Human Rights Violations in the mid-1990s," Terrorism and Political Violence. 9:4.

Gurr, Ted, Robert. 1994. "Peoples Against States: Ethnopolitical Conflict and the Changing World System," International Studies Quarterly. 38.

Wallensteen, Peter and Margareta Sollenberg. 1996. "The End of International War? Armed Conflict, 1989-95," Journal of Peace Research, 33:3.

 


PART ONE - INTRODUCTION TO CONFLICT ANALYSIS

1. September 15 - Concepts and Theory

Required:

Druckman, Daniel. 1993. "An Analytical Research Agenda for Conflict and Conflict Resolution," in Dennis Sandole and Hugo van der Merwe eds. Conflict Resolution Theory and Practice: Integration and Application. Manchester: Manchester University Press.

Kriesberg, Louis. 1995. "Applications and Misapplications of Conflict Resolution Ideas to International Conflicts," in Vasquez, J, et. al. eds. Beyond Confrontation. Ann Arbour: University of Michigan Press

Levi, J. 1996. "Contending Theories of International Conflict," in Chester Crocker and Fen Osler Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds. Managing Global Chaos. Washington: USIP.

Vayrynen, Raimo. 1991. "To Settle or Transform?" in Raimo Vayrynen, ed. New Directions in Conflict Theory: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Transformation . Newbury Park, California: Sage.

Wright, Quincy. 1990. "The Nature of Conflict," in John Burton and Frank Dukes eds. Conflict: Readings in Management and Resolution. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

 

Suggested:

Axelrod, R. 1984 The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.

Banks, Michael. 1986. "The International Relations Discipline: Asset or Liability for Conflict Resolution?" in Edward Azar, Edward. And John W.Burton, eds. International Conflict Resolution. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

Burton, John W. 1986. "The History of Conflict Resolution" in Azar. E. E. & Burton, J. eds. International Conflict Resolution. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.

Kriesberg, Louis. 1994. "Regional Conflicts in the Post-Cold War Era: Causes, Dynamics and Modes of Resolution," in Michale Klare and Daniel Thomas, eds. World Security Challenges for a New Century. New York: St. Martin's Press.

 

Additional Items:

* assign students to issue groups and to specific roles within issue groups; roles will include representatives from DFAIT, CIDA, DND, PCO and NGOs

* discuss requirements for issue brief/paper

* review conference list and agenda items

* discuss in-class presentations and seminar

* important: each group should meet to prepare the first draft (1 page outline) of their issue briefs.

* drafts are to be distributed to each class member by Friday October 9 . Students should use the list of agenda items for upcoming ICONS conferences as a guide when developing their respective proposals and recommendations.

* in addition to conventional research material, students are strongly encouraged to use INTERNET resources to obtain information for their papers. Each student is required to have either a CHAT account or another account that gives full 24 HR access to the WWW. The main ICONS Website provides several useful links to government documents, treaties and other resources: .Other useful linked sites are: and For economic, political, social and environmental indicators of participating country performance, consult the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project at: http://www.carleton.ca/~dcarment/cifp/index.html

 

 

II - ISSUES IN CONFLICT ANALYSIS

2. September 22 - Human Rights, Identity and State Failure

Required:

Bunch, Charlotte and Roxanna Carrillo. 1994. "Global Violence against Women," in Michael Klare, and Daniel Thomas, eds. World Security Challenges for a New Century. St. Martin's Press.

Donnelly, Jack. 1995. "State Sovereignty and International Intervention: The Case of Human Rights," in Gene Lyons and Michael Mastanduno, eds. Beyond Westphalia? State Sovereignty and International Intervention. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.

Sikkink, Katherine. 1993. "The Power of Principled Ideas: Human Rights Policies in the United States and Western Europe," in Joshua Goldstein and Robert Keohane, eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions and Political Change. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

 

Suggested:

Alfred, Gerald. and Franke Wilmer. 1997. "Indigenous Peoples, States and Conflict," in David Carment, and Patrick James eds. Wars in the Midst of Peace. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press.

Ayoob, Mohammed. 1996. "State Making, State Breaking and State Failure," in Chester Crocker and Fen Osler Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds. Managing Global Chaos. Washington: USIP .

Deutsch, Morton. 1991. "Subjective Features of Conflict Resolution," in Raimo Vayrynen, ed. New Directions in Conflict Theory: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Transformation. Newbury Park: California: Sage.

Kingsbury, Benedict. 1997. "Competing Conceptions of International Law: "First Nations" and the United Nations," in Ron Wheeler and Howard McConnell, eds. Swords and Plowshares: The United Nations in Transition. Toronto: Canadian Scholars Press.

Niarchos, C.N. 1995. "Women, War and Rape: Challenges Facing the International Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia," Human Rights Quarterly. 17, 4, November.

Stack, John. 1997. "The Ethnic Challenge to International Relations Theory" in David Carment and Patrick James, eds. Wars in the Midst of Peace . Pittsburgh University of Pittsburgh Press.

Salzman, Todd. 1998. "Rape Camps as a Means of Ethnic Cleansing: Religious, Cultural and Ethical Responses to Rape Victims in the Former Yugoslavia," Human Rights Quarterly. 20:2.

 

 

3. September 29 -Arms Control (Guest Speaker)

Required:

Price, Richard. 1998. "Reversing the Gun Sights: Transnational Civil Society Targets Landmines," International Organization. 52:3.

Steinbruner, John. 1997. "Biological Weapons: A Plague Upon All Houses," Foreign Policy. 109: winter.

Walker, William. 1998. "International Nuclear Relations After the Indian and Pakistani Test Explosions," International Affairs. 74:3.

 

Suggested:

Freedman, Laurence. 1998. "International Security: Changing Targets." Foreign Policy 110: Spring.

Goose, Stephen and Frank Smythe. 1994. "Arming Genocide in Rwanda." Foreign Afairs. 73:5.

Klare, M. 1994. "Adding Fuel to the Fires: The Conventional Arms Trade in the 1990s" in Michael Klare and Daniel Thomas, eds. World Security: Challenges for a New Century. New York: St Martin's Press.

Krass, Allan. 1994. "The Second Nuclear Era: Nuclear Weapons in a Transformed World" in Michael Klare and Daniel Thomas, eds. World Security: Challenges for a New Century. New York: St. Martin's Press.

 

 

4. October 6 -The Environment and Conflict

Required:

Haas, Peter, Keohane, Robert. and Marc Levy. 1993. Institutions for the Earth. Boston: MIT Press. Chapter 9.

Gledditsch, Nils.Petter. 1998. Armed Conflict and The Environment: A Critique of the Literature," in Journal of Peace Research.35:3.

Suhrke, Astri. 1996. "Environmental Change, Migration and Conflict," in Chester Crocker, Fen Hampson and Pamela Aall,. eds. Managing Global Chaos. Washington: USIP Press.

 

Suggested:

Homer-Dixon, T. H. 1991. "On the Threshold: Environmental Changes and Acute Conflict," International Security. Fall. and; 1994 "Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases," International Security. Summer.

Tuchman-Mathews, Jessica. 1994. "The Environment and International Security" in Michael Klare and Daniel Thomas, eds. World Security: Challenges for a New Century. New York: St Martin's Press.

Journal of Peace Research 1998. "Special Issue on Environment and Conflict." 35:3.

 

Additional Items:

* Submission of draft Issue Briefs on Friday October 9 to all 515 students for review and dicussion on the 13th and 20th.
* Completion of ICONS questionnaire accessible through the ICONS web-site
* begin ICONS tutorial

 

 

5. October 13 -Health, Drugs, Migration and Population

Required:

Garrett, Laurie. 1996. "The Return of Infectious Disease," Foreign Affairs 75.

Keh, D and Graham Farrell. 1997. "Trafficking Drugs in the Global Village," in Transnational Organized Crime. 3:2.

Johnson, Victoria and Robert Nurick. 1995. "Behind the Headlines: The Ethics of the Population and Environment Debate," International Affairs 71:3.

 

Suggested:

Barber, Ben. 1997. "Feeding Refugees, or War?" Foreign Affairs. 76:4.

Matthew, Richard and George Shambaugh. 1998. "Sex, Drugs and Heavy Metal,"Security Dialogue. 29:2.

Flynn, Stephen. 1994. "Worldwide Drug Scourge: The Expanding Trade in Illicit Drugs," in Steven Spiegel and David Pervin, eds. At Issue: Politics in the World Arena. New York: St. Martin’s Press.

Stoett, Peter. 1994/95. "Redefining "Environmental Refugees": Canada and the UNHCR," Canadian Foreign Policy . 2:3.

Wiener, Myron.. 1992/93 "Security, Stability, and International Migration," International Security 17:3..

 

Additional Items:

* First Presentation of Issue Briefs ( A 10 minute presentation of a 1 Page Outline)

 

 

6. October 20 -Trade and Development (Guest Speaker- no presentations)

Required:

Moran, Theodore. 1996. "Trade and Investment Dimensions of International Conflicts," in Chester Crocker, Chester and Fen Osler Hampson with Pamela Aall, eds. Managing Global Chaos. Washington: USIP.

Shambaugh, George. 1997. "Threatening Friends and Enticing Enemies in an Uncertain World," in Gerald Schneider and Patricia Weitsman, eds. Enforcing Cooperation. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Wanner, B. 1998. "Asian Contagion Heightens Concerns About Regional Security," Japan Economic Institute. April 18.

 

Suggested:

Barbieri, Katherine. 1997. "Risky Business: The Impact of Trade Linkages on Interstate Conflict, 1870-1985," in Gerald Schneider, G. and Patricia Weitsman, eds. Enforcing Cooperation. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Haggard, Stephen and Andrew MacIntyre. 1998. "The Political Economy of the Asian Economic Crisis," Review of International Political Economy. 5:3.

Hughes, Barry. 1995 "Evolving Patterns of European Integration and Governance: Implications for Theories of World Politics" in Charles Kegley, ed. Controversies in International Relations Theory New York: Martin's Press.

Linden, Eugene. 1996. "The Exploding Cities of the Developing World," Foreign Affairs 75:1.

Gilpin, R. 1987. The Political Economy of International Relations. Princeton, 1987. chs. 1,2.

Mingst, Karen and Craig Warkentin.1997. "The Politics of Women and Development in the United Nations," in Ron Wheeler and Howard McConnell, eds. Swords and Plowshares: The United Nations in Transition. Toronto: Canadian Scholars Press.

Pfaff, William. 1995. "A New Colonialism? Europe Must Go Back into Africa," Foreign Affairs 74:1 January/February.

Sanger, Clyde and Ann Weston. 1994. "Caring about the South - With Good Reason," Canadian Foreign Policy 2:2.

 

Additional Items:

* Presentation of Issue Briefs continued ( A 10 minute presentation of a 1 Page Outline)
* important: once the issue briefs have been reviewed and authorized by the class, the revised communiqués should be immediately sent out to all other countries participating in the ICONS simulation. This will give counterparts in these teams several days to review Canadian positions (and recommendations) regarding issue areas and upcoming conferences.

 

 

III THE SIMULATION 7. - 12. October 27- November 20

Suggested:

Hermann, Margaret, Hermann, Charles and Hagan, Joe. 1987. "How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy Behaviour," in Hermann, C. F. Kegley, C. and Rosenau, J. eds. New Directions in the Study of Foreign Policy. New York: Harper Collins.

Vayrynen, Raimo. 1997. "International Stability and Risky States: The Enforcement of Norms" in Schneider, G. and Weitsman, P. eds. Enforcing Cooperation. New York: St. Martin's Press.

 

4 Classes in Total (simulation begins October 19)

1. During the simulation, students are responsible for managing and monitoring all messages received and sent including those by other groups. At least one representative from each group should be assigned to monitor the agendas of the other groups to ensure policy coordination. Each country receives a password. This password is for use by Team Canada only. Under no circumstances should you reveal your true identity or password to other teams during the simulation.

2. Communiqués will be organized by date, time and sender using the web-based ICONS software..All communiques are archived by sender, date, issue and type. There are terminals in the Resource Centre which are dedicated to class use during class hours. You can also access ICONS from any terminal on campus using either a modem or ethernet connection. Netscape and IE simplify access to the website but they are not necessary. It is also possible to access the Web using non-GUI interfaces. This is important to remember if TCP access is shut down.

3. Members of specific policy groups should coordinate with the person(s) on terminal duty when sending messages to other country teams. Anyone can send a messages as long as (a) the person on terminal duty is aware of (or has read) the communiqué being sent, and (b) at least two other members of the group have seen the final version of the communiqué in question. Messages to Simulation Control (SIMCON) requesting procedural clarifications can be sent at any time.

4. Issue teams should send several significant messages to each country (i.e., proposals, recommendations, offers, etc.) per week in preparation for upcoming conferences.

5. There will be at least two scheduled 90 minute conferences for each issue area. Students are responsible for "showing up" at Scheduled Conferences at least 15 minutes before the conference begins. Every conference is administered by SIMCON. SIMCON sets the agenda tracks time usage The first conference will be for exploration of the various sub-issues and for agenda setting. The second conference will be for dispute resolution and negotiation. Additional conferences can be scheduled - but they will need to be coordinated and monitored by the country teams themselves. Please refer to the ICONS schedule for conference dates and times. All teams will be evaluated on the number, quality and realism of the messages they send during the simulation.

4. There are no required readings during the simulation. Government documents are however a very useful source of information. They should be consulted along with the the three suggested readings noted above. Students are strongly encouraged to spend their time preparing for upcoming conferences by contacting their counterparts from other country teams. This is the only way to establish a strong position and to generate enough support (prior to the conferences) to get your team's proposals passed during on-line conferences.

5. Items on the agenda for each issue team during the simulation:

* distribution of messages to appropriate groups for discussion
* updates from each group on Canadian policy and reactions
* discussion of problems and conflicts with other country teams (or SIMCON)
* conference updates and strategies
* assessment of overall progress and performance
* there will be a scheduled 1 hour Policy Coordination meeting every Tuesday for the duration of the simulation. Each team should send a representative to discuss their agenda, objectives and strategies.

 

IV - DEBRIEFING

11. November 24 - Debriefing

 

*Take-Home Exam Due Friday November 27, 5pm

*In- Class Post Simulation Debriefing
* Complete post-simulation questionnaire

 

12. December 1 - Live Video Conference with other Country Teams

* Final Draft of Issue Papers due
* Course summary and evaluations


A. Format of Issue Briefs/Issue Papers

a) The issue brief will consist of no more than a 1 page outline of 250-500 words. It should address the following:

1. National Goals and Policies: third party interests, past-future linkages, vital and secondary interests.

2. Problems facing the Nation: For whom are they a problem? Why are they a problem?

3. Problem -specific Goals: For each issues what is the most and least desireable outcome?

4. Alternative Policies to Achieve Goals: Instruments, objectives and strategies.

5. Evaluation of the Alternative Policies: Allies and their interests.

6. Recommendations and Final Strategy. Based on probability of success and importance of issue.

b) The final issue paper is to be no longer than 7 pages. It should be a modified issue brief in the light of simulation events and outcomes. The paper should also clarify processes; specify objectives met and indicate why; identify the interests and activities of relevant actors and; identify areas of success/failure..

 

B. Format of Presentations on Readings

Required course readings will be presented in class by individuals. Critiques of the readings should be summarised on one (1) page to be circulated among the students the Monday before each class. The summaries, as well as the presentation, should focus on the reading’s argument, its assumptions, its substantive content, its merits relative to the other readings, and its implications for policy. It should also suggest areas for improvement.


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