Statement of Research

David Carment
Norman Paterson School of International Affairs
Carleton University

Although the methodology of my research agenda emphasizes overarching theoretical and empirical assumptions, its evaluation is also to be weighed in terms of its policy implications. As a major contributor to conflict management and resolution, the United States has much to gain from a better understanding of the modern conflict environment. Thus, each of the components of my research are oriented towards the practical problems of conflict analysis and their applications to policy. Three interrelated research programmes are underway: conflict prevention, conflict management and conflict resolution. Each is considered in turn.

Conflict Prevention, Early Warning and Risk Assessment: The purpose of this research has been to undertake conceptual work, theory building and statistical analysis on the international aspects of early warning, risk assessment and conflict prevention. The objectives of this research are to provide a research context for the study of the potential for violent conflicts and the existing mechanisms to deal with them; to analyse the evolution of states and regions in which unsolved political problems could give rise to violent conflicts; to develop a typology of conflicts and indicators, as a set of criteria with which to assess their dynamics, and to evaluate instruments for the various aspects of conflict prevention with a special focus on early warning and risk assessment. This research builds on the findings of previous work including studies supported by NATO, a 1996-1999 SSHRCC Grant, a 1999-2001 SSHRCC Grant, and a DFAIT Policy Planning Research Grant.

Conflict Management: Individual and collaborative work on conflict management includes research on peacekeeping and third party intervention such as the two volumes, Wars in the Midst of Peace and Peace in the Midst of Wars. Individual work has led to the development of several distinct models of third party intervention and conflict management. The common theoretical framework of these models is the application of systematic evaluation techniques to situations of conflict and third party intervention. The blending of the economic and political science approaches to conflict and intervention represents an important and unique approach to conflict analysis. Several formal models have been developed to assist in the analysis of conflict dynamics. The first of these seeks to explain intervention success on the basis of exogenous conflict characteristics. The second is derived from a refined version of dynamic game theory.

Conflict Resolution: Collaborative research with the United Nations University and others has been undertaken to develop a conflict resolution training programme in the context of post conflict peacebuilding. Two areas of research are underway: the evaluation of mediation to end destructive conflicts using quantitative analysis and the development of a series of problem-solving workshops, focussing on the economic, political and military transformations and resolutions of protracted communal conflicts. A key element of these projects is the application of theory to the practice of conflict resolution and transformation in theatre in the context of ongoing protracted communal conflicts. Training programmes implemented through regional organizations such as the OAU, OAS, OSCE and ASEAN will be developed over the course of the coming year.

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