Parliamentary International
Forum
The Pace of the Middle East Peace Process: Israel and Lebanon
May 28, 1996
A Synopsis of the Commentaries
Patrick Martin, the Foreign Editor of The Globe and Mail, who served four years as the
newspaper's Middle East Correspondent (1991-95), concentrated on the situation in Israel on the eve
of the Israeli election. He began by noting that nowhere is politics played more seriously than it is
in Israel. Small political parties possess considerable power because the two leading parties, Likud
and Labour, have traditionally been unable to amass the required 62-63 seats in the Knesset to ensure
a majority. (In the 1992 election, Labour won 44 seats and Likud 40; in 1996, Labour took 34 seats
and Likud 31 in the 120-seat Knesset; the major beneficiaries of the two leading parties' decline were
the smaller religious parties.)
For this particular election in addition to electing the Knesset, voters will be asked to choose the
Prime Minister in a separate ballot. This reform was intended to decrease the influence of small
political parties. Consequently, a situation could arise in which the Prime Minister could be from a
one party (Likud or Labour) while the government could be dominated by members from another
party. If this situation were to arise it is possible that new elections could be held within 45 days if
the Prime Minister is unable to form a functioning coalition government.
The elections' impact upon the peace process as a whole is likely to be relatively small. Even though
Likud has stated that it will unfreeze the development of Israeli settlements in the Occupied
Territories and push for complete Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem, it is unlikely that Likud Leader
Benjamin Netanyahu will reverse the peace process with the Palestinians because during the election
campaign he moved as close as he could toward the centre. He is a savvy, pragmatic politician who
understands that the political climate has changed in Israel and that the people want lasting peace and
security with their Arab neighbours. No leader wants to lead Israel into war.
Political changes which are conducive to peace are also taking place in Syria and Lebanon, despite
the negative influence of Iran with Hezbollah.
The Israeli settlement issue in the Occupied Territories is likely to be resolved since most of the
population in Israel is not willing to barter their security for the settlers' sake. The issue of
settlements in the region is primarily economic. Therefore, most of the smaller settlements could be
evacuated if Israel were to provide the Jewish population with adequate monetary compensation.
The larger settlements, those which surround Jerusalem, may be incorporated into Israel by redrawing
the borders. Jews now outnumber Arabs by some 90,000 in East Jerusalem, therefore an agreement
over the city may take the form of overlapping sovereignty.
Nevertheless, fundamentalism remains a threat to peace and security in the region. It has deep
historical and social roots and is most militant in countries where pluralism is constrained such as
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Algeria. However, in pluralistic Arab societies such as Jordan and among
the 900,000 Moslem Arabs in Israel, Islam remains moderate in its orientation and politics. For
instance, there are Islamic municipal governments in Israel which are supported by the population,
because they run local services efficiently, but remain loyal to the Israeli state.
The other commentator was Major General Trond Furuhovde, the Special Advisor to the
Permanent Mission of Norway to the United Nations in New York and formerly both Chief of Staff
and later Force Commander (1993-95) of the United Nations Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
The general remarked that, while Lebanon is thought to be in Syria's pocket, he believed that this is
not an accurate depiction of current realities which are much more nuanced. There is much more of
a balance between the Syrians and the Lebanese.
Lebanon is in the process of state-building or re-building. It is, for example, creating a new
democracy as well as developing its own armed forces. It is involved in the current peace process
in order to find its place in the newly-transformed Middle East.
In the 1970s the West turned its back on Lebanon as it slid into civil war. The country was further
weakened by Israel's occupation of the so-called "security zone" in the south and by Arab forces in
the north. As time goes by, we should see a better balance of forces emerge in the country as
Lebanon develops its own national forces.
Approximately 20 per cent of the population of Lebanon is Palestinian; they have an immense
influence on politics in the country. Their interests are promoted by the Shia Muslim organization,
Hezbollah, whose members are included in the current parliament (they have 8 seats of the 27
reserved for the Shia Muslim confession in the 128-seat Parliament). Links between the military and
the political wings of Hezbollah are not thought to be close.
The situation in South Lebanon remains tenuous. Several Lebanese-based actors, as well as Israel,
are involved in the situation. These include the Amal movement, created by Nabih Berri, the current
Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and other
groups, all of which are seeking to create a stake for themselves in the political structure of the new
Lebanon.
The tendency in the West is to focus on the religious elements of Hezbollah -- which are certainly
beholden to Teheran -- but in terms of military operations much more depends on the ground
commanders than on the Iranians. Hezbollah is more motivated by Israel's occupation of South
Lebanon than it is by Iran.
Hezbollah is well-trained and equipped and it has excellent intelligence and communication
capabilities. Although its fire power is next to nothing when compared to Israel's retaliatory
capability, Hezbollah is nonetheless clearly able to shake the Israelis through hit-and-run tactics.
The Golan Heights are strategically very crucial to the Israelis because whoever commands the
territory controls most of Lebanon. One reason for its importance is that, with new long-range
ballistic missiles, Israeli cities such as Tel Aviv could easily be targeted from well-beyond Israel's
borders, as was the case when Iraqi Scud missiles rained down on Israel during the Gulf War.
Another reason possession of the Golan Heights is critical is that it is the source of fresh water for
Israel and the Occupied Territories as several rivers flow from the region down into the Jordan River
basin. Israel is a developing society whose population is expected to double within the next 30 years;
hence water is increasingly becoming an important security concern.
Overall, there has been a remarkable change in Israelis' attitudes towards attaining peace in the region.
Most Israelis realize that only dialogue with and making efforts to understand their neighbours'
perspectives can ensure security in the future. Hence there are two requirements: confidence-
building measures and the political will to reach a peaceful goal.
Follow this link to
CNN's interactive web-site on the Middle East Peace Process.