Parliamentary International Forum
A Post-Mortem on the U.S. Elections: The Impacts on
Canada
Notes on the Commentators
Thomas G. Weston, Acting U.S. Ambassador to Canada:
The 1996 U.S. presidential election did not bring about a change in leadership,
but it did create new shifts in the House and Senate. The Republican-led
Congress should serve to moderate the Executive. The sizeable new freshman
class could make for a difficult political dynamic since many of the new
members have a business background and are fairly inexperienced and even
intolerant of Washington ways.
During his second term, Clinton will work towards leaving his mark in the
areas of education, health care, and the environment (especially climate
change). The international community should expect considerable continuity in
U.S. foreign policy with continuing emphases on managing or coping with
change in Russia and China, the Middle East peace process, and the trans-
Atlantic security architecture (NATO). It is expected that Vice-President Al
Gore will play a more substantial role leading up to the 2000 elections in
which he intends to run for President.
Richard Dresner, Chairman and Founder of Dresner, Wickers and
Associates, Inc.:
The 1996 elections produced a 70-seat shift but, for all intent and purposes,
the Democrats and Republicans are evenly balanced. What the Republicans
lost in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, they regained in the South
and the conservative parts of the Mid-West. Dresner predicted a large
Republican victory in 1998 (with 4-5 new Senate seats and as many as 30-40
congressional seats), in part because of declining voter turn-out and also
because historically the off-year elections of an Administration's second term
is usually disastrous for that Administration. Both the House and the Senate
will remain conservative.
It should be noted that the unions played a powerful role in the election,
spending between $30-35 million on the campaign, targetting about 30 seats
and winning about 14 of them. In fact, a lot of money was spent by unions
and other interest groups which did not count as campaign funds. Campaign
funding reform is necessary to correct these discrepancies.
Graham Fraser, Washington correspondent for the Globe and Mail:
The re-election of President Clinton demonstrates the power of incumbents.
The election produced a divided government, albeit a conservative one. All key
positions in the Executive and the Legislature are held by conservative
southerners. The close numbers between Republicans and Democrats will lead
to closer votes and could put added pressure on politicians not to break party
ranks.
On the foreign policy front, Congress will remain sceptical about the value of
multilateralism and the United Nations. It would be very difficult for the
President - who seems to be painted into a corner on foreign policy - to get
support for more Bosnia-type initiatives. Canada can look forward to more
congressional-driven unilateralism in U.S. foreign policy. Indeed, with half of
Congress replaced in the last two years, foreign policy will not be high on
Congress' collective mind. Nor are foreign policy issues likely to be relevant in
the next election.
The isolationist nature of Congress is worrisome to many foreign
governments. The Germans, for example, have embarked on a counter-active
strategy to use their own foreign direct investment in the United States as a
means of demonstrating to select members of Congress the value of an
international outlook.
Issues arising during Discussion:
Helms-Burton
As far as Washington is concerned, the Helms-Burton law worked. The
President signed the bill to win votes in Florida, and he did. Moreover, the
election confirmed in power the sponsors of the bill whose power was, to
some extent, even enhanced. There is a better chance of the Pope's visit to
Cuba changing the Castro regime than that of Congress changing its position
on Helms-Burton. The World Trade Organization will likely call for a panel on
Helms-Burton in the coming weeks.
Low Voter Turn-out
The low voter turn-out indicates that most Americans are generally satisfied.
Dresner commented that the "3Rs" which historically bring out voters - race,
religion and recessions -were not important factors in this election: people
were reasonably satisfied. Fraser noted that American politics has become a
minority activity and compared it to "pro sports," another activity that Fraser
noted makes millionaires, attracts rabid partisans, and has its own special
cable channels. He went on to claim that there was a specific effort to drive
the majority out of the market in order to keep control in the hands of the
few.
Canada-U.S. Bilateral Relations
It is anticipated that bilateral issues will remain largely the same. Canadians
and Americans hold similar views on a majority of issues including the
economy, the environment, families, social programs, etc. Cuba is an
exception, however. Due to historical differences, as well as the fact that
there are many more Cubans in the United States than in Canada, the two
countries have never seen eye to eye on the matter of Cuba. But Helms-
Burton should be put in perspective: Cuba as an irritant to bilateral Canada-
U.S. relations is far less damaging to the overall relationship than, for
example, lumber.
*Prepared by Gregory Wirick and Leanne Fischer, Parliamentary Centre.